Are exotic material prices fair?

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Re: Are exotic material prices fair?

Postby Moneyman » Sat Jun 17, 2017 7:45 pm

:mrgreen: bump for more viewers ... maybe more opinion.
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Re: Are exotic material prices fair?

Postby Moneyman » Sun Jun 18, 2017 6:13 pm

:mrgreen: This thread is about the game economy hyper-inflated price impact on ship and ship module prices.

The game only has a mechanism to check (Local Market contracts) over-abundance causing price deflation.

For that reason, exotic material price hyper-inflation (due to scarcity) has been spiraling out of control.

A game hyper-inflation check mechanism could prevent materials from being sold above a certain price per tonne.

For instance, a surcharge on sell transactions above a certain price.

... Accrued surcharges could be used to assist new players in their game purchases.

In the case of niobium and tin, that surcharge could apply on sales above $1316 per tonne.

If that surcharge had been in effect in 2014 then niobium and tin prices wouldn't be approaching $200k per tonne.

This why I'm suggesting barter ... This is not Eve ... something should be done about the price hyper-inflation.
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Re: Are exotic material prices fair?

Postby Wulf » Sun Jun 18, 2017 7:33 pm

Moneyman wrote::mrgreen: This thread is about the game economy hyper-inflated price impact on ship and ship module prices.

The game only has a mechanism to check (Local Market contracts) over-abundance causing price deflation.

For that reason, exotic material price hyper-inflation (due to scarcity) has been spiraling out of control.

A game hyper-inflation check mechanism could prevent materials from being sold above a certain price per tonne.

For instance, a surcharge on sell transactions above a certain price.

... Accrued surcharges could be used to assist new players in their game purchases.

In the case of niobium and tin, that surcharge could apply on sales above $1316 per tonne.

If that surcharge had been in effect in 2014 then niobium and tin prices wouldn't be approaching $200k per tonne.

This why I'm suggesting barter ... This is not Eve ... something should be done about the price hyper-inflation.


not sure why you keep on with 1316 per ton, that has never happened in the 4 years i know of, the lowest it has ever been is 50k with a giant push to get it there. if I had to guess price should sit around 75k (somewhere between 50 and 150) and just for interested before thermoforming graphene sat at 50k.
I will also point out that, without gates, it was very hard to get to exotic mats, so it toke me close to 3 mnths to get to the top ship of the day. this was some of the original economics. it stretched out the early game much more and I think may have helped with retention of players. i do not think the point is to get clear of the class 1-10 ships in a day but closer to a month of active work if prices were that low everyone would have a top ship in a day , two max, not a lot of fun there, no sense of any accomplishment. (note I think the class 1-5 mods should be available from npc's all the time)
I do support the concept of using exotics as a market barter system, but that is a lot of work and very likely will not happen.
Considering so many other bigger issues need to be addressed. and , although I got a lot of grief for posting cost of production economics model (the simplest, fastest way to fix the economic vast problems IMO) that (game economics) really needs a full rework before we should be suggesting putting bandages on. The forum is still open but I have not seen a single person come up with another full economics rework let alone a better solution. (If someone does post remember it has to be something that has a high likelihood of implantation. good luck, lot of critics few supporters)

If you want to help the exotics model, then look at the root causes that effect it. like changes to asteroid growth, thus making it possible for players to have a steadier supply of mineable fields, having to wait up to 2 years for fields to age to feel like you are maximizing time and resources should be part of the equation for revamp.
a change to asteroid growth times, maybe even add a random age to newly discovered asteroid fields to help new players get aged minable fields without mnths to wait or forced into raiding.

(plus I really hate the ultra fast growth rate LOOK of baby asteroids, I mean 1 week to look like they are months old. please change, if nothing else press Jam to make the look of aging over weeks or months not 7 days)

IF you personally want to change prices, a full time miners job is yours, and price at your OSB, keep supplying community.

I think a cap on skills may help new and veteran players a bit as well, we get top miners to harvest rares because you need an elite skill, a good skill is still meaningless, this leads to only a few elites able to maximize asteroids. (this might hurt me a bit but maybe useful, I am not elite but have 150ish skill, 2nd option is cap the skill but have a secondary effect that higher skills heat rocks faster and would make bots less doable or allow npc ship to trail you and given assignment patrol and also to destroy 'x' asteroids)


BTW nice post Moon guess we posted about the same time.
Last edited by Wulf on Sun Jun 18, 2017 7:55 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: Are exotic material prices fair?

Postby Mooncrest » Sun Jun 18, 2017 7:44 pm

:o The price tht NPCs will pay for Niobium is between ¢19,000 and ¢22,000 per unit and the Tin price from ¢5,000 to ¢9,000 per unit.

:( This is already well above your suggested price of ¢1,316 per unit.

:) The exotic material market is the only market that truly works on a supply and demand basis.

:) The price for Niobium and Tin will reach a top level when the Players who are buying decide that they are not prepared to pay more for it.

:( Unfortunately, because of the disparity between the selling price and the buying price of Carbon, this will be quite a high price, because those Players that are using Niobium and Tin can easily recoup any cash they pay for these minerals by selling Carbon.

:D We are fortunate that the amounts of Carbon that can be sold are not infinite, but are limited by the boredom factor of hauling Carbon to market using the same route.

:| New Players do not need any assistance with their game purchases.
. . . . . . They can make sufficient credits in a very short time: initially by hauling Carbon from either Prime, New Dawn or Menzel 3 to the nearest NPC Star Station. They will make a profit of around ¢800 per unit
. . . . . . Then, when they are ready, they can move to mining for Niobium and Tin and sell it for upwards of ¢100,000 per unit.

:!: The main lesson New Players have to learn is that Ascent is a friendly game environment.
. . . . . . They will get as much help as they want, possibly more than they want, from other Players
. . . . . . There is no need to rush things: they can relax and do things at a slower pace than most other MMO games
. . . . . . They cannot die, nor lose anything they have spent time and effort making.
. . . . . . No Player can take away, or destroy, anything they have made.
. . . . . . In fact they will get more enjoyment out of the game by slowing down, finding out how things work and thinking about what they want to do
. . . . . . Being a sandbox game, their gameplay after they have completed the Tutorial Missions, will be entirely down to their own imagination
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Re: Are exotic material prices fair?

Postby Mooncrest » Sun Jun 18, 2017 8:15 pm

Moneyman wrote::mrgreen: This thread is about the game economy hyper-inflated price impact on ship and ship module prices.
Since I am the only shipbuilder actually advertising prices at the moment, I can safely say that the price of Niobium and Tin that I will pay has not changed for about two years. My prices have not changed in more than six months: they were changed (reduced) last November to compete with One of Fice). The are about to rise slightly, becuase of an exchnge of posts with Wukf who made me look again at Cost of Production. This is NOT hyper-inflation.

The game only has a mechanism to check (Local Market contracts) over-abundance causing price deflation.
I posit that the Local Market is not a mechanism for controlling over-abundance, but a mechanism for allowing Players to sell goods they have no other market for. At this time no-ne is paying the prices for the basic resources that can be found at the Local Markets, so they are used as a dumping ground

For that reason, exotic material price hyper-inflation (due to scarcity) has been spiraling out of control.
Actually they are reasonably stable. Some Players are creeping their prices up, but the majority are still in the 100k to 150k price range.

A game hyper-inflation check mechanism could prevent materials from being sold above a certain price per tonne.

For instance, a surcharge on sell transactions above a certain price.
Ok, so you are going to make an already expensive sale even more expensive by adding a surcharge. Not a good idea imho.

... Accrued surcharges could be used to assist new players in their game purchases.
Given that a surcharge is implemented. Just who is class as a New Player?
How and how much would the New Player get 'assistance' with new purchases?


In the case of niobium and tin, that surcharge could apply on sales above $1316 per tonne.

If that surcharge had been in effect in 2014 then niobium and tin prices wouldn't be approaching $200k per tonne.

This why I'm suggesting barter ... This is not Eve ... something should be done about the price hyper-inflation.
I am open to barter. My Price List gives the total amount of material I require for a Vessel or Module.
I have never played Eve, so would like an explanation of the
'This is not Eve' comment, please.
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Re: Are exotic material prices fair?

Postby Moneyman » Mon Jun 19, 2017 1:16 am

:mrgreen: Thanks wulf and Moon for your thoughts … I'll answer best I can.

Wulf: not sure why you keep on with 1316 per ton


As a trader, you know as well as I do, that in negotiation you start with a low ball bid … What better source than JAM: 7.6 (n/t) * $1316 = $10k … the price of a Hornet.

My objective is what everybody thinks can't be done … stop the upward spiral … they are right … without the reverse version of LM it can't be done.

Wulf: I will also point out that, without gates, it was very hard to get to exotic mats, so it toke me close to 3 mnths to get to the top ship of the day.


I'm not suggesting ending gate building … Just ease the scarcity pressure on prices.

$50-75k per tonne may not be possible currently but isn't a surcharge over $100k fair?

Wulf: … although I got a lot of grief for posting cost of production economics model ...


Don't let the other players tell you to shut up … So what if they don't agree.

Wulf: IF you personally want to change prices, a full time miners job is yours


JAM's game design makes that impossible … this is the only game that I have this difficulty.

He punishes the player not in sync with his way of thinking … he gets me angry. Not fun.

Wulf: I think a cap on skills may help new and veteran players


There is too much emphasis on hand-eye skills and not enough on grey cell ability.

Moon: Side comment on the first of your posts I'm responding to: Luv the use of emotive icons.

Moon: The price tht NPCs will pay for Niobium is between ¢19,000 and ¢22,000 per unit and the Tin price from ¢5,000 to ¢9,000 per unit.

This is already well above your suggested price of ¢1,316 per unit.


The LM does not sell niobium or tin only buys it. ¢1,316 per unit is a selling price.

Moon: The price for Niobium and Tin will reach a top level when the Players who are buying decide that they are not prepared to pay more for it


Never comes to mind. And the number sellers of Niobium and Tin show that the choice is not to sell except in the $10m to $10b per tonne to discourage buying.

Moon: We are fortunate that the amounts of Carbon that can be sold are not infinite, but are limited by the boredom factor of hauling Carbon to market using the same route.


At the risk of being accused of whining, sometimes hauling is the only choice.

Yes, I daily produce 2-2.5m carbon but I end up dropping it in the LM or selling it in contracts as I make my inner settlement rounds. Mining is not an option. Some NPC trade: insignificant.

Moon: No Player can take away, or destroy, anything they have made.


Then you haven't sold to Trash?

Moon: Since I am the only shipbuilder actually advertising prices at the moment, I can safely say that the price of Niobium and Tin that I will pay has not changed for about two years. My prices have not changed in more than six months: they were changed (reduced) last November to compete with One of Fice). The are about to rise slightly, becuase of an exchnge of posts with Wukf who made me look again at Cost of Production


In the time-frame you've just described, niobium and tin prices went up-and-down, mostly up.

The official price has gone from $125k per tonne to the $150-180k per tonne. Am I wrong?

So, $125k per tonne to the $150k per tonne is not inflation? Looks like it to me.

Moon: Actually they are reasonably stable. Some Players are creeping their prices up, but the majority are still in the 100k to 150k price range.


Maybe its a personal thing but my SM went months at $100k: Not a bite.

Moon: Ok, so you are going to make an already expensive sale even more expensive by adding a surcharge. Not a good idea


So, anything that is different than the way things are currently done is bad?

That is the kind of response I see whenever someone proposes something different than the way things are currently done.

Unless you are Wulf, for example, its amusing how wrong his ideas are to everyone else.

Moon: Given that a surcharge is implemented. Just who is class as a New Player?
How and how much would the New Player get 'assistance' with new purchases?

Thank you, finally we have a dialog. New Player, currently is about a few days.

If you don't like surcharge to make an economic correction provide an alternative.

You and I and most players are insulated from the effects of a correction.

Everyone seems to have their own version of how the economy is broken.

There have been many proposals of how to 'fix' the economy … RAM has one.

If you don't like the word 'correction' then pick another word.

Say, 'adjustment'. Don't you agree that 'adjustment'(s) affect those just starting?

Moon: 'This is not Eve' comment, please.


If you seek an experiential description of playing in Eve there are plenty of Ascent players who can provide that answer … I've spoken with many of those players.

And, if you are asking about my experience in other online games when I was attacked again-and-again by players who could care less about my opinion of them … I can give that answer also.

However, I only meant that Ascent is special and lets keep it that way.

Finally, about your denial of hyper inflation: Wulf revealed $50-75k in 2014 and now $150-180k in 2017.

Tell me, the price has more than doubled ... Are you telling me that is just inflation? I think its more than that.
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Re: Are exotic material prices fair?

Postby Moneyman » Mon Jun 19, 2017 10:10 am

:mrgreen: Moon, unknowingly, uncovered the perfect solution to exotic materials scarcity and over-pricing.

Moon:The price tht NPCs will pay for Niobium is between ¢19,000 and ¢22,000 per unit and the Tin price from ¢5,000 to ¢9,000 per unit.


Refers to LM buy contract ranges which increase scarcity and put a floor on exotic materials pricing.

However, if the buy is changed to a sell then scarcity is decreased and there is a ceiling to exotic materials pricing.

This is the sort of change that RAM can make as president.

Now those huge inventories of exotic materials are truly only useful for gate construction.

Look again at the initial post to this thread and calculate a Leviathan with HD's price using the above sell range.

That is medium prices: Niobium for ¢20,500 per tonne and Tin for ¢7,000 per tonne.

Easter eggs are no longer necessary, upper end ships and ship modules are more reasonably priced.
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Re: Are exotic material prices fair?

Postby Mooncrest » Mon Jun 19, 2017 7:40 pm

I have been doing some work on NPC Ships.
Image
EDIT: I realised that the Salvage Beam and Shield numbers were erroneous. They have been corrected.

The following assumptions have been made:
  • There has been no provision made for Labour and Welfare costs
  • The cost of all materials except Niobium and Tin has been ignored
  • It has been assumed that the NPC Builders add 30% to their total cost of production to arrive at their Sales Price
As can be seen the price of Niobium and Tin increases significantly as the Class of Vessel produced goes up.

It would seem that from the above table we cannot base a price for Niobium and Tin by calculating the apparent cost to the NPC Shipbuilders.

But, extrapolating from the above data, 100,000 would not seem to be too high a price to pay for Tin and Niobium for Player Made Ships.

It would seem, also, that the NPC Shipbuilders are using lower Class Ships as Loss Leaders. On the Contract Board they are paying the amounts I have previously stated. So, these prices are the Prices that Players can sell at to the NPC Market.

Given the above, it would seem that they are not turning a profit until they sell Class 5 and above ships.

You are right, people are not selling Niobium and Tin from stock.
. . . . . . However, Players are selling Tin and Niobium they have recently mined.
. . . . . . Players using Niobium and Tin are competing with each other to buy up this limited supply.
. . . . . . This is driving up the price at which these materials are bought.
. . . . . . This, in turn, drives up the cost of the products made with these materials.

Players will only stop rising the price they are willing to buy these materials at when either: they decide that they are paying enough, or they are unable to sell their end product.

The main reason, imho, for this is the Local Market.

Given that the Local Markets will buy any quantity of the basic resources as can be supplied: Players, who are determined enough, can haul vast quantities of resources to the Local Markets and make billions in a very short period of time.

Of course, hauling is the only consistent option to get your resources to market.
. . . . . . Players tend to like to be self sufficient, so the Player to Player Market is slow
. . . . . . The fact that the Stock Market Search does not vet for order viability does not help, either

Of course I have sold to Trash. Selling to Trash is supposed to be a way of getting rid of useless ships, etc. That was not what I meant. I meant that you and your colonies/OSBs cannot be attacked and destroyed.

Moneyman wrote:Moon: Ok, so you are going to make an already expensive sale even more expensive by adding a surcharge. Not a good idea

So, anything that is different than the way things are currently done is bad?
No. As I understand your scheme, if a Player sells Niobium and Tin for a price in excess of a certain price a surcharge will be added.
So, assuming that a price of 150,000 is above the surcharge threshold and the surcharge is 5%, does. the Player buying pay 157,500 per unit, or does the Player selling only receive 142,500?


It is not that I don't like surcharges. They are a good method of taking cash out of an economy. However, you suggest that the surcharge is used to 'assist New Players purchases'. How this is to be achieved and how much a New Player will get in assistance and what timescale has not been made clear.

My method for correcting the economy is to slow the flow of cash coming into the economy.

In the extreme, we shut down the Local Markets and increase the number of contracts appearing each time period and increase the number of products sought by the NPCs.

Slightly less extreme, we ban the larger ships from trading with the Local Market and force them to trade only with the Contracts Board, a la Deep Six. We increase the number of contracts appearing each time period and increase the number of products sought by the NPCs, as well.

The result would be loss of the unlimited demand of the Local Market, which favours the established Player and increase of smaller transactions which would favour the New Player.

The boredom factor associated with hauling will still be a factor in slowing the cash in-flow.

The overall result should be to put a brake on the amount of new cash arriving in the Player economy and thus have a tempering effect on inflation.
Last edited by Mooncrest on Tue Jun 20, 2017 1:41 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Are exotic material prices fair?

Postby Moneyman » Tue Jun 20, 2017 11:48 am

:mrgreen: I've learned a lot from your last post and I'm grateful for the time you spent on the post.

Looking forward to your thoughts on my post that followed the one you responded to.

:?: You do know that some of my post was just teasing you and Wulf?
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Re: Are exotic material prices fair?

Postby Mooncrest » Tue Jun 20, 2017 1:22 pm

Moneyman wrote::mrgreen: I've learned a lot from your last post and I'm grateful for the time you spent on the post.
Looking forward to your thoughts on my post that followed the one you responded to.
Look no longer... here it is :)

:?: You do know that some of my post was just teasing you and Wulf?
Nope. :) That is the problem with text: you cannot judge the 'tone of voice' or gauge any emotional signals, everything is 'monotone'.

If you are making a jest, you have to be explicit.

However, nothing you have said is upsetting or objectionable to me. I am quite enjoying this exchange. :D



Moneyman wrote::mrgreen: Moon, unknowingly, uncovered the perfect solution to exotic materials scarcity and over-pricing.
Moon:The price tht NPCs will pay for Niobium is between ¢19,000 and ¢22,000 per unit and the Tin price from ¢5,000 to ¢9,000 per unit.

Refers to LM buy contract ranges which increase scarcity and put a floor on exotic materials pricing.
In theory, yes. In practice no Player should sell to NPC Market as the PC Market has vastly better prices.

However, if the buy is changed to a sell then scarcity is decreased and there is a ceiling to exotic materials pricing.
Again, in theory, yes. In practice, Jam has no mechanism for this and will not, as far as I understand, countenance a change to this policy.

This is the sort of change that RAM can make as president.
If this is not a change that any President can make. I believe that Jam has designed the game mechanics so that some resources will only be supplied by Players investing the time to mine them from asteroids. This is why he is not going to allow automated mining nor alow automated trading with the NPC Stations.

Now those huge inventories of exotic materials are truly only useful for gate construction.
Gates use quite a lot of Niobium, Tin and Promethium, but ship manufacture uses probably a similar amount. For instance making a Hyperspace capable Leviathan uses about 40,000 units of Niobium and the same of Tin. The Class 16 vessel uses double that and so on. As time goes by and bigger ships are released demand for Niobium and Tin will become astronomic. In fact,
I foresee that, in the not too distant future, I will only be able to make ships if the customer cannot provide the Niobium and Tin for me to use.


Look again at the initial post to this thread and calculate a Leviathan with HD's price using the above sell range.
That is medium prices: Niobium for ¢20,500 per tonne and Tin for ¢7,000 per tonne.
Here you go. I thought that I may as well do all the PC Built Ships up to Class 20.
Image
I'd love to be able to build for these prices, but who is going to sell me Niobium and Tin at such a low price?

The thing about a Free Market is that prices will find a level where Sellers and Buyers will agree to trade.

There is a premium on those resources that are produced only by Players investing their own time producing them.

This premium transfers to the products made from those resources.

All the other resources and products cost very little to produce and can be sold relatively cheaply.

Niobium, Tin, Promethium, Cerium, Yttrium, Antimony, Gold, Gems and Neurocrystals are the Player-time consuming resources and will, therefore, command a high price.

How high these prices will be can only be determined by the Players who are willing to compete to buy them.

The price for these resources cannot be controlled.

It can be influenced by those Players who are determined enough to produce high quantities of these resources.

I use a price of 100,000 for Niobium and Tin as a base for my Price List.

Given that the average price of Niobium and Tin is now around 150,000 per unit: my prices should be 50% more than they are.

Therefore, my ship prices are cheap.

I have been thinking for some time that they are too cheap.

However, I am loath to raise them, all though, since I have a virtual monopoly, I could easily do so.

Easter eggs are no longer necessary, upper end ships and ship modules are more reasonably priced.
I am not sure I could afford to make an 'Easter Egg' out of a Class16 or higher vessel. :lol:
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